Hal (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
libertango) wrote2008-11-06 09:56 pm
libertango) wrote2008-11-06 09:56 pm
Entry tags:
538 prediction vs actual
The map comparing Nate Silver's predicted Electoral College map (bottom), vs the actual results (top).
http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com/ has clearly been a big winner this cycle. Here's his only variances:
* Indiana went Democratic
* Missouri was a "toss up" -- it looks like it'll go Republican
* Nebraska's Electoral College votes are split by congressional district. They're still counting, and the possibility remains that the district with Omaha will go for Obama.
Given Nate was predicting 55 individual races -- 50 states, 3 districts in Nebraska, 2 in Maine -- that's a pretty good batting average.
http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com/ has clearly been a big winner this cycle. Here's his only variances:
* Indiana went Democratic
* Missouri was a "toss up" -- it looks like it'll go Republican
* Nebraska's Electoral College votes are split by congressional district. They're still counting, and the possibility remains that the district with Omaha will go for Obama.
Given Nate was predicting 55 individual races -- 50 states, 3 districts in Nebraska, 2 in Maine -- that's a pretty good batting average.