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Google gets a bit more frantic
Jul. 9th, 2009 12:55 amOriginally posted at my blog on business matters, Not That Kind of Operation:
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James Fallows was kind enough to quote me at length back in May. The topic was the continuing "death of newspapers." Among the things I said then is:
On Tuesday, Google announced plans for "Google Chrome OS".
Almost all the coverage (this roundup at Techmeme is a good example) focuses on the technical challenges, and on Google's positioning vs. Microsoft.
That's not the real story here, though.
The real story is -- How can an OS be advertising supported? Specifically, how can an OS be advertising supported using Google's "tiny little ads" model?
I don't think it can be. Which implies Chrome OS will be paid for by someone other than advertisers. Whether that's the OEMs (the manufacturers of computers), or ISPs, or the users themselves -- somebody is going to be forking over license fees to Google.
Which would appear to confirm my earlier statement above: "(Google keeps) trying so desperately to find something, anything, other than search that'll make money..."
This is a canary in a coal mine moment. This is Warren Buffett shopping for companies in Europe, or his saying he was "shorting the dollar" by buying non-US currencies. It's a massive vote of no confidence by Google on the future of advertising.
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James Fallows was kind enough to quote me at length back in May. The topic was the continuing "death of newspapers." Among the things I said then is:
The real problem is, advertising is dying. It's just pulling down newspapers along the way. Next up: TV, radio, and Google.
This is why I was warning anyone who would listen that traditional media's schadenfreude when the internet bubble popped in 2001 was probably misplaced. Because the reason it popped was one finally had the metrics to show Advertising Doesn't Work. Google has forestalled the inevitable by doing the Net equivalent of the "tiny little ads" schtick of a decade or two back, but I think they see the writing on the wall, which is why they keep trying so desperately to find something, anything, other than search that'll make money...
On Tuesday, Google announced plans for "Google Chrome OS".
Almost all the coverage (this roundup at Techmeme is a good example) focuses on the technical challenges, and on Google's positioning vs. Microsoft.
That's not the real story here, though.
The real story is -- How can an OS be advertising supported? Specifically, how can an OS be advertising supported using Google's "tiny little ads" model?
I don't think it can be. Which implies Chrome OS will be paid for by someone other than advertisers. Whether that's the OEMs (the manufacturers of computers), or ISPs, or the users themselves -- somebody is going to be forking over license fees to Google.
Which would appear to confirm my earlier statement above: "(Google keeps) trying so desperately to find something, anything, other than search that'll make money..."
This is a canary in a coal mine moment. This is Warren Buffett shopping for companies in Europe, or his saying he was "shorting the dollar" by buying non-US currencies. It's a massive vote of no confidence by Google on the future of advertising.
