Round up of the election geeks

[libertango]

State of play in the election as of today, according to simulators and markets:

Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 313 electoral votes, McCain 225

FiveThirtyEight.com: Obama 331 electoral votes, McCain 207

Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 286 electoral votes, McCain 225, Ties 27

Iowa Elctronic Markets: Dem .69, Rep .31 (one way to think of that is as percentages, but it represents the price of contracts out of a $1.00)

Intrade does both:
* Obama 338 electoral votes, McCain 200
* Obama .64, McCain .36 in the contracts

Comments

[ckd]

Hmm, a bit of an arbitrage opportunity between Intrade and IEM there....

[jrittenhouse.livejournal.com]

I put up my call in June, and I'll stick with it. (http://jrittenhouse.livejournal.com/972794.html)