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[personal profile] libertango
So, the resignation has come down from on high, from the most powerful Justice of the US Supreme Court. No, not Chief Justice Rehnquist, as many expected, but Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor -- who has been the linchpin in so many cases over her 24 terms that this may as well have been "the O'Connor Court" (not unlike the way it was functionally "the Brennan Court" for quite some time).

[livejournal.com profile] akirlu's first reaction was, "I guess this means they'll nominate Alberto Gonzales." But there has been more resistance than one might think to a Gonzales nomination, from unexpected sources. Take this analysis from Jan Crawford Greenburg of the Chicago Tribune (a writer much respected at SCOTUSBlog):

"Gonzales, 49, would meet fierce opposition from the conservative groups that see him as too moderate to replace the conservative Rehnquist. As a Texas Supreme Court justice, Gonzales voted to strike down some state abortion regulations, and as White House counsel, he opposed taking a hard line against affirmative action.

But Bush has long said he would like to name the first Hispanic to the Supreme Court and likes the idea of the "Gonzales Court," sources close to the White House said. The political calculation for Bush is whether he risks offending his conservative base to make Gonzales chief justice or holds off, gambling that a liberal or more moderate justice, such as John Paul Stevens or Sandra Day O'Connor, would also retire during his presidency."


In that respect, O'Connor's departure makes a Gonzales nomination for Rehnquist's seat, should Rehnquist retire, more likely. It also means that Bush will probably nominate someone more likeable to the hard Right this time, go through the bruising battle, and then have Gonzales ready to go as a comparative "moderate" next time.

Greenburg also has a good article about the vetting process, and whose advice is being sought, including that blast from the Reagan past, Ed Meese.

The real question is, will Bush try to replace O'Connor with another woman? It's hard to imagine Bush wants Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be the only woman on the Court.

Again, a good source to follow all the ins-and-outs over the next few weeks will be the Supreme Court Nomination Blog.
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