(no subject)

This was written in response to an article in Slate.

*^*^*

Subject: The Statistical Case Against Ben McGrath
From: Hal O'Brien
Date: Aug 30 2001 1:28 AM

McGrath's main complaints against Ichiro come in one paragraph:

* Ichiro is 15th in On Base Percentage out of all AL players.

* Ichiro is among the players getting out most often.

* Ichiro's slugging percentage isn't what it might be.

The first point is perhaps most obviously damning, because the whole point of a leadoff batter is to get on base and start things up, yes?

The trouble is, take a look at who are the 14 players ahead of Ichiro in OBP: #1 is Jason Giambi -- hardly the first name that springs to mind as a leadoff hitter. #2 is the redoubtable Edgar Martinez, whom McGrath praises. And so on down the list, until we come to Ichiro's other neighbor, #14 Derek Jeter -- the only other leadoff hitter. Jeter's OBP is .384. Ichiro's is .381.

How much more money are the Yankees paying Jeter? For the sake of .003 OBP?

Next up, Ichiro's outs. Yup, he makes a lot. He's also leading the league in at bats, so much so that he's projected to come within a whisker of Willie Wilson's record from 1980 -- 705 for the record, with Ichiro projected to end up with 703. Perhaps he gets out a lot because -- just maybe, mind you -- he gets to the plate a lot? Every other player on McGrath's list who are ahead of Ichiro in outs are also just behind him in plate appearances, with Ichiro, Damon, Anderson, Gonzalez, and Erstad taking 5 of the top 10 places on the PA list.

Lastly, Ichiro's slugging percentage. The list for slugging percentage is very flat -- places 20 through 40 have a spread of .037 between them. The obvious comparison here again is to Jeter, who with a .478 SLG comes in at 28th, compared to Ichiro's .462 at 37th. On the other hand, how many leadoff hitters are there among the top 40 sluggers? Damn few, with the list being headed off by the likes of Jim Thome and Jason Giambi. Again, is Jeter really worth his extra money for just .016 of SLG? And what does it say about both these players that they're even on lists that are dominated by heavy, 3-4-5 hitters in the batting order?

On the other hand, consider that Ichiro is #7 in total bases, and #2 in runs scored. Run production is the name of the game, kids, and on both lists, the names you see are people like... you guessed it, A-Rod, Thome, Giambi, Manny Ramirez... Again, high production, 3-4-5 hitters.

I agree Ichiro's not MVP -- that should probably go to Edgar Martinez or Bret Boone. But he's definitely Rookie of the Year (which age has nothing to do with -- or is McGrath claiming that playing in Japan is equivalent to playing in MLB?)... And he's surely a lot more than a "Zero".

(no subject)

Another Slate post, this one in response to a particularly silly comment:

*^*^*

Subject: RE: Don't you just love liberals...
From: Hal O'Brien
Date: Aug 30 2001 11:46 AM

A few points:

* You are aware, aren't you, that many of the most important documents written during the Revolution and the Founding were written pseudonymously? Were Cincinnatus and the Federalist authors not "Real Americans"? How about "Poor Richard", aka Ben Franklin?

* Re defense cuts, how do you know that some of the posters here adovocating cuts aren't themselves military veterans, either active or retired? This is text -- there's no way to know the background of who's speaking ("real" names or not). Let alone, cuts in the defense budget don't necessarily mean cuts in efficiency. If we spend billions for a particular weapons system that doesn't work under battlefield conditions, how much better "defended" are we? Why are efficiency and productivity good things in the private sector, but not when it comes to defense?

This even leaves aside the issue of, just whom do you think is the threat? Is a large conventional military the best response to, say, terrorism? Are our civil rights safer or more threatened by a military that's permanent, entrenched, and increasingly contemptuous of civilian authority -- all of which was anathema to the Founders?

* As to people moving to this country... In my experience, they are the most genuinely patriotic of all Americans. They have a committment to the ideals of this country that those of us fortunate enough to have been born here just don't appreciate, because for us it's background noise, while for them it was the biggest decision of their lives. When they speak of the blessings of living in this country, they speak without posturing, and without irony. They speak from the heart. Go to any college campus, see the degree immigrants and the children of immigrants dominate the top scholastic rankings, and participate the most, and then tell me that the future for my children isn't immeasurably enhanced by the people who have chosen to join us in being Americans.