Consequences

[libertango]

From 2Blowhards comes this snippet of an interview, which I think has the best comment on L'affaire Irak ever:

2B: What would be the consequences of a rapid USA exit from Iraq?

Cochran: Someone would win the civil war and then they'd sell oil.

*^*^*

See, that's always been my problem with the whole, "We're really in Iraq for the oil," argument. You'd think that if we were, we'd somehow manage to sell more of the stuff.

About the only way one can get to an oil-related motivation for our involvement in Iraq is counter-intuitive: We're there to keep Iraqi oil off the market, and thus prop up prices.

Two other possibilities, neither of which are comforting:

* Like the WMD, it turns out Iraq has far less oil than we thought.
* The Bush administration is so incompetent it can't even get this right, despite years of experience at senior levels in the oil biz.

Comments

[bodandra.livejournal.com]

Ummm -

You do know that he ran a company of his into the dirt in Texas - right?

snortle

[fritz-freiheit.livejournal.com]

I'm inclined to go with second of those other two possibilities...

Non-exclusive

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

You do know George W. Bush is not the only person in the Federal government, and not even the only person in his own cabinet (let alone the administration at large) with experience in the oil business - right?

It's tempting

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

The trouble is, there are a lot of places where it really is an issue of values and character. That is, while many may regard them as incompetent, they regard themselves as going through the planned checklist, and they genuinely and sincerely believe they're accomplishing what they set out to do.

Ruin the government? Hey, that was the plan! -- that sort of thing.

[pecunium.livejournal.com]

I think the failure to actually look at the future bit them in the ass, that and the urge to show up daddy.

Scowcroft reminds them that Daddy said it would become a quagmire... well that's incentive to go in and get the candy and the flowers.

But right now, there ain't no way the oil can flow, because the pipelines are too vulnerable. What little oil is getting out is being hauled to Turkey in tankers (pretty much, there is a small amount coming out via the southern ports, but not much).

I think they figured they would be able to get cheap oil, and make money for people hand over fist, prop the dollar (against the deficits they were going to run up by slashing taxes) and no one would notice.

Instead the price went up (and the profits faster) the KBR, etc., boondoggle was lining pockets they have hands in and the furture looks good because of of all the oil not in the market, which will delay/prolong the peak of the curve.

That there are moves to move oil to the Euro (though this is largely an Iran move, and China isn't ready to make that move just yet) puts them in minor pickle, but the folks holding our paper are content to/in need of keeping things afloat, for the nonce, and they can ignore it.

I think they are so short sighted that they can, "plan for that later."

TK