Rolling along

[libertango]

And, having mentioned Mr. Obama... I note that Mrs. Clinton has not won an election since Super Tuesday, while Obama has won 8 in a row as of tonight. (Washington state, where, as mentioned, I'm a delegate for him to the next level of caucuses, while akirlu is an alternate; Virgin Islands (yes, in the Democratic Party, they get delegates); Nebraska; Louisiana; Maine; Virginia; Washington, D.C.; and Maryland) That's a pretty diverse bunch, with a mixed set of demographics.

Comments

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

http://www.slate.com/id/2184207/

B

Hm. Yeah, but...

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

Here's the exit polling from Virginia:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#VADEM

Here it is from Maryland:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MDDEM

The Slate piece (which I point out was published on Monday) says, "Women, Latinos, and less-prosperous voters all have continued to support Clinton."

In Virginia, Obama takes women, 60%-39%. Women were also 57% of the Virginia electorate. For Maryland, it's 55-41, of a 62% slice. So much for Clinton's hold on women.

Obama took every income level in Virginia, by about high-50s to mid-60s. Same in Maryland. So much for "only the rich."

Late deciders in Virginia(last three days) were 18% of the sample, and went for Obama 55-44. In Maryland, 20% of the sample, and narrower, but Obama still took it, 48-45.

About the only real uncertainty here is the Latino vote, and that's only 5% of Virginia, 4% of Maryland.

Back to Slate: "Of course the race's switchbacks have now become such a predictable part of conventional wisdom that it may be time now for the undulations to stop and for momentum to start playing a role again. In that case, Clinton is doomed."

That exit polling sure looks momentum-ish to me.

If all Clinton is hanging on to is the Latino vote, then she wins Texas, but loses Ohio. If the Latinos flip before then, it's over.

Re: Hm. Yeah, but...

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Yeah. The exit polls look good.

I also found this (http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/02/whos_afriad_of_obama.html) to be interesting.

B

Re: Hm. Yeah, but...

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

I agree that McCain is going to be a tougher nut to crack than, say, Huckabee. Which is why I've been pulling for Huckabee.

But, long as we're going through the Slate archives, dig this piece on Unlimited Fighting, with its bizzarro plot twist of almost being killed by McCain's chairmanship of the right Senate committee (I know it's "almost" because I now see UFC ads on the channel Spike during CSI); and this earlier piece by the same writer, David Plotz, who clearly has a jones for McCain, but still makes good points. (I remember reading the UFC piece when it first came out, which is why I knew to dig for it -- the other showed up in the search.)