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libertango"The rise and fall of oil production is asymmetrical."
Ah. Revealed at last, why Kunstler thinks a novel is "credible" when it shows people living at 1830's levels in about fifteen years from now.
As may be... Colin Campbell, the founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas disagrees with him. Kenneth Deffeyes, geologist at Princeton and author of "Hubbert's Peak," disagrees with him. Hubbert himself, the original exponent of the peak oil theory, disagrees with him.
Peak plus 15 years should see global production at Peak minus 15 years' levels. Remember the great oil shortages of 1992, and the famine and death of industrialism that followed? No?
Me neither.
And that's before we get into, if we're "sleepwalking into the future," then OPEC is sleepwalking right along with us, given that they've become increasingly insistent in asking for guarantees of demand, and no replay of the glut of the 1980's caused by conservation.
UPDATE: Note this fairly detailed discussion at The Oil Drum (a site recommended by Kunstler in the past), titled, "Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze."
Ah. Revealed at last, why Kunstler thinks a novel is "credible" when it shows people living at 1830's levels in about fifteen years from now.
As may be... Colin Campbell, the founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas disagrees with him. Kenneth Deffeyes, geologist at Princeton and author of "Hubbert's Peak," disagrees with him. Hubbert himself, the original exponent of the peak oil theory, disagrees with him.
Peak plus 15 years should see global production at Peak minus 15 years' levels. Remember the great oil shortages of 1992, and the famine and death of industrialism that followed? No?
Me neither.
And that's before we get into, if we're "sleepwalking into the future," then OPEC is sleepwalking right along with us, given that they've become increasingly insistent in asking for guarantees of demand, and no replay of the glut of the 1980's caused by conservation.
UPDATE: Note this fairly detailed discussion at The Oil Drum (a site recommended by Kunstler in the past), titled, "Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze."
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no subject
Date: 2008-05-08 06:30 am (UTC)Where you and
Kunstler is a hybrid prat who is right enough to be credible and wrong enough to be amusing. I read his article that you link to, and his argument holds together for me, tonight, but I am not in the mood to test it. However, good on you for not getting caught up in his world view.
I am trying to keep one small area, about the size of Woodland Park Zoo or the Univ. of Washington's upper campus (60 acres) intact. The idea of suburban sprawl has finally run it course is very appealing to me.