Innumeracy in action

[libertango]

"1 in 7 Detainees Freed Returns to Terrorism, Pentagon Says," reads the headline.

So the alternate headline (studiously avoided): "6 out of 7 Detainees Freed Either Don't Return to Terrorism, Or Were Never Terrorists From Start, Pentagon Says."

Also buried well into the article:

"Terrorism experts said that a 14 percent recidivism rate was far lower than the rate for prisoners in the United States, which, they said, can run as high as 68 percent three years after release. The experts also said that while Americans might have a lower level of tolerance for recidivism among Guantánamo detainees, there was no evidence that any of those released had engaged in elaborate operations like the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks."

So to recap:

* Joe Criminal from the US, let out of jail: more than 2 out of 3 times, goes back to crime.

* Alleged "worst of the worst" Guantánamo detainee: goes back to crime only 1 out of 7 times. Or almost 5 times less often.

{blink}

This must be some new-found definition of "worst" I wasn't previously aware of.

Comments

[farmgirl1146.livejournal.com]

Jail/prison is a the equivalent to criminal school.

I cannot figure out how they came up with these statistics since almost no one has been let out of the American Gulag. One needs incidences to make statistics.

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

"I cannot figure out how they came up with these statistics since almost no one has been let out of the American Gulag."

More than you might think. According to CNN in January, "...roughly 520 prisoners... have been released from the Guantanamo facility."

That's from a peak 770 (op cit), leaving 230-ish still there. So about two-thirds have been released.