ENG-ALG 0-0
Jun. 18th, 2010 06:04 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
libertangoUPDATED TO ADD: Almost everything below is wrong. I'm still leaving it, as an exercise in humility.
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...and you can tell the English are somewhat in shock.
How so? The Guardian isn't accurately reporting the situation -- mostly because they haven't worked out the permutations, near as I can tell.
"His team will still qualify for the knockout phase so long as the Group C leaders, Slovenia, are beaten on Wednesday."
That's necessary, but not sufficient.
Say ENG-SVN goes 1-0, and USA-ALG goes 1-0. First tiebreaker would be goal differential, and that's even. Next would be goals scored, and USA leads that, 4-2 (in this example).
To advance, ENG need to win, and win by 3 goals more than USA do should USA win as well. Or USA need to draw or lose.
The point is, victory over Slovenia isn't enough. There are now factors out of England's control.
This is why Nate Silver and the analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com rank England's chance to advance at only 3rd most likely in the group.
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...and you can tell the English are somewhat in shock.
How so? The Guardian isn't accurately reporting the situation -- mostly because they haven't worked out the permutations, near as I can tell.
"His team will still qualify for the knockout phase so long as the Group C leaders, Slovenia, are beaten on Wednesday."
That's necessary, but not sufficient.
Say ENG-SVN goes 1-0, and USA-ALG goes 1-0. First tiebreaker would be goal differential, and that's even. Next would be goals scored, and USA leads that, 4-2 (in this example).
To advance, ENG need to win, and win by 3 goals more than USA do should USA win as well. Or USA need to draw or lose.
The point is, victory over Slovenia isn't enough. There are now factors out of England's control.
This is why Nate Silver and the analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com rank England's chance to advance at only 3rd most likely in the group.
no subject
Date: 2010-06-19 04:56 am (UTC)If England only draw with Slovenia, then the result of US vs Algeria becomes relevant.
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Date: 2010-06-19 07:20 am (UTC)No, this was a classic case of Digby's Law ("The fastest way to get information on the internet isn't to ask a question, but to post the wrong info and wait for people to correct you.")
That is, my branch on false assumption was failing to consider what a ENG win over SVN would mean to Slovenia's points, and therefore standing.