libertango: (Default)
[personal profile] libertango
Let's take a closer look at something I just said:

* Iraq will be a pushover. Mostly because it doesn't have anything to really fight with.

Right again.


But the occupation has been problematic. How much of a "pushover" is Iraq right now?

The answer to that is mostly in my post of March 30, where I made a comment about an article of Thomas Friedman's. Using his analogy of Iraq being like a Let's Make a Deal prize, I said there was an increasing possibility that what it contains is a note saying, "Congratulations! You just won Palestine. Only there's 80 times more land mass, and 9 times more people."

I then went on to point out that the Israelis have never been able to subdue the Palestinians, even though they've had fifty years to try, and have been willing to use much more force than we're likely to.

Nothing in that has really changed -- we're an occupying force viewed as invaders by the locals, and they're going to continue to kill 3-5 troops per week at minimum until we leave.

So, yes, knocking Iraqi Dumpty off the wall was a "pushover". Putting Iraq back together again is probably damn near impossible -- same as with Palestine.
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