Polling stuff
Jul. 7th, 2004 08:14 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
libertangoDuring the kerfluffle on LJ a while back about the dismal new commercial on the Cheney/Rumsfeld/Bush campaign web site -- the one so bad some folks were speculating whether it was a parody -- a news item from the campaign caught my eye. "Kerry Support Most Negative in History".
What they meant was, a bigger percentage of Kerry voters support him because he isn't George W, Bush than because they actively support John Kerry than prior candidates, according to a poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
I generally don't put much stock in political polling. Participation rates are abysmal, and there's no way to verify people are telling you what they really think, or what they want you to think they think.
But that wasn't the strange part. The strange part was they provided a link to the nitty-gritty results of the poll. Why was that strange? A couple of things:
The poll includes data from the past. What that means is, if you look down at Questions 8 & 9, you can see that in 2000, about 14% of voters voted for Gore because they were anti-Bush, while 12% voted for Bush because they were anti-Gore. As of last month (when the poll was taken), the numbers had switched to 27% of voters favoring Kerry being anti-Bush, while 11% favor Bush because they're anti-Kerry. The Bush/Cheney campaign's point is that there are a heck of a lot of people provisionally opting for Kerry because they dislike Bush so much. What they're either not noticing, or not telling you, is that Bush has been so bloody awful he's doubled the proportion of the electorate opposed to him -- which is, as they point out, unpecedented. {cough}
But the other odd thing is this: We've been told by the press, in a constant drumbeat, how "likable" Bush is, and how "cold and aloof" Kerry is. Myself, I don't see it. Bush has always struck me as about as likable as a down-on-his-luck used car dealer. Kerry comes across to me as a professorial type -- which is cool by me, I like academia.
Here's the interesting thing, though: Buried down in Questions 45/47 of the Pew poll, they ask everyone what qualities or characteristics voters like about each candidate. There's a category called, "Personality/Attitude/Communication", and another one called "General character". There's also one called, "Normal guy", which I mention because one of the things the press also keeps hammering on is how much more Bush conects with "reg'lar people" than Kerry does.
Ready for the results?
Bush:
Kerry:
Do you see those huge gaps in how "likable" each one is?
No?
Hmm... Neither do I.
What they meant was, a bigger percentage of Kerry voters support him because he isn't George W, Bush than because they actively support John Kerry than prior candidates, according to a poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
I generally don't put much stock in political polling. Participation rates are abysmal, and there's no way to verify people are telling you what they really think, or what they want you to think they think.
But that wasn't the strange part. The strange part was they provided a link to the nitty-gritty results of the poll. Why was that strange? A couple of things:
The poll includes data from the past. What that means is, if you look down at Questions 8 & 9, you can see that in 2000, about 14% of voters voted for Gore because they were anti-Bush, while 12% voted for Bush because they were anti-Gore. As of last month (when the poll was taken), the numbers had switched to 27% of voters favoring Kerry being anti-Bush, while 11% favor Bush because they're anti-Kerry. The Bush/Cheney campaign's point is that there are a heck of a lot of people provisionally opting for Kerry because they dislike Bush so much. What they're either not noticing, or not telling you, is that Bush has been so bloody awful he's doubled the proportion of the electorate opposed to him -- which is, as they point out, unpecedented. {cough}
But the other odd thing is this: We've been told by the press, in a constant drumbeat, how "likable" Bush is, and how "cold and aloof" Kerry is. Myself, I don't see it. Bush has always struck me as about as likable as a down-on-his-luck used car dealer. Kerry comes across to me as a professorial type -- which is cool by me, I like academia.
Here's the interesting thing, though: Buried down in Questions 45/47 of the Pew poll, they ask everyone what qualities or characteristics voters like about each candidate. There's a category called, "Personality/Attitude/Communication", and another one called "General character". There's also one called, "Normal guy", which I mention because one of the things the press also keeps hammering on is how much more Bush conects with "reg'lar people" than Kerry does.
Ready for the results?
Bush:
7% Personality/Attitude/Communication (ranked 4th of his qualities) 5% General character (5th) 2% Normal guy (7th)
Kerry:
9% Personality/Attitude/Communication (ranked 2nd among his qualities) 4% General character (6th) 1% Normal guy (8th)
Do you see those huge gaps in how "likable" each one is?
No?
Hmm... Neither do I.
