Hal O'Brien

Back when Robin Cook resigned from the Blair government in the UK, I thought it was a turning point... Mostly because I thought Cook had the possibility of being someone around whom a new government could form, if Blair lost the confidence of the House.

So as I was thinking about this, I mentioned to Ulrika that Blair could probably count on Jack Straw, despite Straw's relatively recent (at that time) backpedaling on whether the UK would tag along on a war against Iraq if the UN Security Council voted against it. Which meant, I said knowingly, that Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, was pretty much in the position of kingmaker. (as it, um, were)

So. So imagine my reaction when I read the following in yesterday's Financial Times:

"The political dynamic in the cabinet is less predictable. The spectacular non-resignation of Clare Short, the international development secretary, threw a lifeline to the prime minister. But it was the support of Gordon Brown, finance minister, that really mattered. A month ago the relationship between the two men was icy. During the past few days the body language between them has occasionally seemed almost affectionate. Once the war is over Mr Blair can remake his cabinet as he will. But he owes Mr Brown."

I would say, you read it here first, but I never got around to posting it. Still, not a bad call by an ignorant Amurrican.