libertango: (Default)
[personal profile] libertango
Knute Berger, in "Village Idiots" (March 30 - April 5, 2005), doesn't seem to have a good handle on supply and demand. The reason houses cost so much in Seattle (or San Francisco, or Manhattan, or Portland) is because there's a helluva lot of demand for those houses.

There are only two ways to do much about the situation -- put more houses in to increase supply (which means higher density), or pay a subsidy (thereby artifically reducing the net price). Of the two, increased density is the more sustainable in the long run, both for fewer resources consumed by building greener houses, and because sooner or later any subsidy will come to an end (jacking the price right back up to where it would've been in the first place).

He's absolutely right about education. As Warren and Tyagi show in their book, The Two-Income Trap, people are literally bankrupting themselves to pay for mortages in places they feel have better education. But that only shows how a slight increase in taxes for education not only gets you better schools, but also a more stable financial environment for families, far outweighing the costs of those bankruptcies.

Sincerely,

Hal O'Brien

Date: 2005-03-31 03:54 pm (UTC)
drplokta: (Default)
From: [personal profile] drplokta
Paying a subsidy doesn't help, as you still have the same number of people chasing the same number of houses, and paying all they can afford. If house prices average $400,000, and you then offer a $50,000 subsidy, all that happens is that prices go up to $450,000 -- you end up subsidising existing house owners, not buyers.

Options

Date: 2005-03-31 04:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hal-obrien.livejournal.com
I'm not so sure. If I offer a house at $400,000, and it moves, I'm not sure I really care where the money comes from.

But, if you're right, that only means density/increased supply really is the only way to go. {shrug} Hokay, fine. :)

Re: Options

Date: 2005-03-31 04:08 pm (UTC)
drplokta: (Default)
From: [personal profile] drplokta
If you could get a buyer at $400,000, you can get the same buyer at $450,000 if he's getting a $50,000 subsidy. Why wouldn't you put your price up?

Re: Options

Date: 2005-03-31 04:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hal-obrien.livejournal.com
First off, I am most definitely not an economist. So this is all speculative, as far as I'm concerned.

But the main reason is, I'm not sure you'd get, "the same buyer." Let's go back to your original premise:

"...you still have the same number of people chasing the same number of houses..."

Right. Which means the supply is exactly the same. Now, what I'm reading you saying is that a subsidy drives up demand. But if the number of buyers is still the same, I'm not sure how that can be.

In other words, what you're saying makes sense if you look at this solely from the sellers' point of view. But if it was me, as a buyer, and the seller did this to me, I'd walk. Perhaps I'm just not as able to see the point of view of other buyers as I might.

Re: Options

Date: 2005-03-31 05:03 pm (UTC)
drplokta: (Default)
From: [personal profile] drplokta
Subsidy drives up demand where demand is measured as the amount of money chasing houses. In a limited market, houses will sell for what people can afford to pay for them. If they can afford more, then houses will sell for more.

Re: Options

Date: 2005-03-31 04:09 pm (UTC)
drplokta: (Default)
From: [personal profile] drplokta
Increased supply is not the only way to go; there's also reduced demand. Make popular cities less popular, or (probably better) make unpopular cities more popular.

Re: Options

Date: 2005-03-31 04:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hal-obrien.livejournal.com
Yeah... But it's really tough for a policymaker in Seattle to do much to drive up demand in Omaha. I get the sense -- and I may well be wrong -- that the British national government has more ability to do that kind of regional/trans-regional kind of planning than would be possible in the US.

Date: 2005-03-31 06:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] aamusedinatx.livejournal.com
When I arrived 15 years ago, the average house in the bay area was 100,000 per bathroom. That sounds like a joke, but it's not. a 3 bedroom, 3 bath house was 350,000 while a 3 bedroom, 1 bath house would be 175,000. Now, the median price for a house is astronomical. And really, it's not even the house that you're buying it's the land underneath it. Land is at a premium here and there isn't room to expand. We've exploded into the hills and we can't build into the bay or the ocean. And so...we are not likely to see a real cooling in housing prices here in the bay, ever.

Date: 2005-03-31 08:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] marykaykare.livejournal.com
The only thing I think would cool off housing costs would be the ability to instaneously and cheaply travel wherever. Whether teleporting or jaunting or whatever. Then you could live wherever you wanted and work anywhere. I've been after Jordin FOR YEARS to do something but he's just so busy...

MKK

Date: 2005-04-01 01:40 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gfrancie.livejournal.com
high density seems to be the only sensible answer.

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Hal

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