Washington primary

[libertango]

We here in Washington state have an odd situation. There was a lawsuit, so there's a court-mandated presidential preference primary. But the state Democratic party still insists on allocating delegates solely by caucuses. (The GOP nominally splits it 50-50 between the primary and the caucuses -- when caucus-goers' wishes are observed at all.)

Anyway... There are a few interesting things to note about yesterday's primary:

* Obama beat Clinton, 50% to 47%.

* That's important because the closest thing we've had to this situation this cycle -- primaries where no delegates were at stake, and no campaigning done -- is Michigan and Florida, both of which Clinton won.

* That means that even in a "beauty contest" situation that she's won before in other states, Clinton still lost. Notably, those other states held their votes before Super Tuesday.

* Clinton has not won an election -- even non-binding ones -- since Super Tuesday. The papers will tell you ten-in-a-row for Obama. I would make it 11.

* 518,000 Democrats voted in the non-binding primary. That's significantly higher than the record setting 200,000 or so who showed up for the caucuses.

* It's also a lot higher than 383,000 who showed up for the Republican primary -- even though it did count.

* That's not just bad news for McCain (presumably). It's also bad news for Dino Rossi, who's running a second time for Governor, because last time the Republicans didn't steal as many votes as they thought, and an honest result took place the vote was closer than any gubernatorial election in US history. It doesn't look like it'll be anywhere near that close next time -- and that's before we get into the issue of whether 2008 will be the worst year for Republicans in general since 1932.

* Right now, the "magic number" to get a majority of delegates for the Democratic nomination for president is 2025. Since Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates, I assume that figure doesn't include them. Because the Clinton campaign is increasingly looking for any delegates they can find, they've been talking about seating Michigan and Florida's delegates after all. Those two states have 355, so 184 is majority of just them, making 2209 the tamper-proof resistant majority for the nomination.

Comments

[farmgirl1146.livejournal.com]

Really enjoy reading your analysis. I look forward to it and fell upon this with delight. You give facts to my feelings.

I wish that an engaged Republican turn out would be bad for Rossi, but how can Rossi be defeated when Esser pulls the ballot box strings for him? (Check this out and look for other articles there on Esser:

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5698#more-5698.)

This puts me in mind of Eyman: how can he be defeated? Horsesass.com wrote this a couple of years ago, here's the link

http://www.horsesass.org/index.php?p=1288

Of the $593,000 he raised for Initiative 900, over $514,000 can from a single source: investment banker Michael Dunmire of Woodinville. All it takes to qualify for the ballot is a half million dollars worth of paid signatures, and with a deep pocketed sugar daddy like Dunmire, Eyman is virtually assured ballot access.

A slight natter: I believe that in general the thinking on electability has changed. As Obama wins more, people on the fence are more inclined to vote for him. I like them both a lot (far beyond the throw the rascals out).

Obama is very likable. Hillary who is also likable, and even more so when her emotions show (imhp), as a candidate and a campaign gets more tedious when Bill bulls his way in. McCain decreases in likability daily. He had turned into the man who will say anything to get elected, and so is cozying up to the peanut gallery around Bush, the religious right (whom neo-cons hate), and the unthinking "Support Our Troops" ribbon people who love a shallow slogan.