Doublethink

[libertango]

If health care reform is so bad for the insurance business, why does an index for health insurers keep rising the closer we get? (Look at 1-yr, esp.) Yet again, some Republicans are all in favor of markets, as long as the market agrees with them.

Or, to put it another way -- health insurance stocks are up 90% over the past year. Clearly the market hates the idea of health care reform. {cough}

Comments

[davidlevine]

Why do bar and restaurant owners always complain when smoking bans are proposed, even though there's plenty of data indicating that bar and restaurant revenues go up when a smoking ban is put in place?

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

Hey, thanks. I have a blog I don't do enough with -- http://notthatkindofoperation.blogspot.com/ -- about business follies. That falls right in to the theme of the thing.

[davidlevine]

In the spirit of full disclosure, please be aware that I don't have any actual, you know, facts to back up that statement.

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

I understand. I was going to check first. "Trust, but verify," and all that.

[notthebuddha.livejournal.com]

If health care reform is so bad for the insurance business, why does an index for health insurers keep rising the closer we get?


Because the uncertainty is greatly lessened; that index tanked back when the election got close, and continued to decline as the president-elect made more waves. Now there's finally a relatively clear picture of what will or won't happen.

If the measure fails, the companies are relatively safe from further reform attempts for several years, so their long-term value goes up, and people speculating this way are buying, raising the price this week slightly but hoping to take profits when the price recovers to previous levels.

If the measure passes as it stands now, the greatest expenses are years in the future, while some short-term gains in revenue from new mandated pools and coverages will buoy things up for the short term. I haven't seen any coverage of how the adjustment process will be reformed, so meanwhile it's likely the ins companies can keep lowballing and stalling their benefits while they invest the greater amount of cash-on-hand and look better to short-term investors, letting the above speculators mediate their possible losses.

Or at least that's a scenario that could be sold to fund managers and other investors. We'll have to see.

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

"that index tanked back when the election got close..."

Um. We're talking about 2008 here, yes? Are you sure you're not confusing correlation with causality? That is, the overwhelming majority of stock indexes tanked in 2008. And?

I'm sorry... This reads to me like reflexive, Brin's Dogma of Otherness contrarianism on a strictly pro forma basis.

[notthebuddha.livejournal.com]

yes, partially - I'm always suspicious of simple answers and seek to challenge them, mostly to see if the person offering them can support them with any depth.

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

The obvious problems here:

* One person's "simple" is another person's "elegant." There are no objective criteria for the distinction.

* Constantly "challenging" things not because you have a sincere objection but because it's sheer reflex can itself be seen as a "simple" approach. Hence the use of the term, "dogma."

I'm aware I'm doing exactly the thing Brin describes -- that is, I'm objecting to the Dogma of Otherness using the tools of the Dogma of Otherness. That meta-ness and pervasiveness is exactly why he saw it as important when he flashed on the idea.

Many people, though, use those tools without being aware of the larger context. That can lead, in some instances, to a lack of depth in their inquiry.

And, if you want to get hard and crunchy and empirical about it, one of my longstanding guidelines is this: "Everything is provisional, pending better data." I showed my data in my statement. Your questions referred to no such data. When I'm wrong, I can be persuaded of such, and admit it -- even after 20 years, and the telling of many anecdotes based on the faulty information.

I do insist on that "better data," though.